Enter one or more recent tests and get a predicted time and split for any other distance or duration. The prediction comes from how real athletes' times change with distance, learned from thousands of athletes who ranked several events in the same season on the Concept2 Logbook. It then adjusts to your own results.
Enter one or more recent max-effort tests. Two tests at quite different distances, such as a 2k and a 6k, let the model learn how much you personally fade.
The same prediction carried across all distances and durations, with Paul's Law and the critical power model for comparison.
Pace per 500 m against distance (log scale). Faster is higher. The shaded band is the 80% prediction range.
Training bands set from your predicted 2k power, and a split plan for the piece you're predicting.
Bands are % of your predicted 2k power, following a common UK rowing convention. Coaches draw them differently, so treat the edges as rough.
Your entered and predicted times ranked against everyone of your gender and age band on the Concept2 Logbook. A sprinter's dots sit further right at the short events, a diesel's at the long ones.
Each line is a group of athletes with the same 2k speed, from the fastest tenth to the slowest. Near 2k, every group slows by a similar number of seconds per doubling of distance. The curve bends, though: pace changes much faster below about 1 km than above it, so a single fixed rule like Paul's Law (+5 s/500m per doubling) goes wrong for sprints. The bigger differences are between individuals of the same speed (next section).
At the same 2k speed, athletes still differ in how much they slow down over longer pieces. This is each athlete's fade near 2k, in seconds per 500 m added for every doubling of distance, for athletes who ranked at least three events in a season.
One in five athletes was held out of the fit. For each held-out athlete, every ranked result was predicted from one or two of their other results and compared with the real time. Errors are in seconds per 500 m.
Median error against how many doublings of distance separate the target from your nearest test (1 = twice or half the distance).